- Methods and Projects
- Standards and Classifications
Standardised Methodological Report
Business Confidence Indicators
- 1Contact
- 1.1Contact organisation
National Statistics Institute of Spain
- 1.5Contact mail address
Avenida de Manoteras 50-52 - 28050 Madrid
- 1.1Contact organisation
- 2Metadata update
- 2.1Metadata last certified
28/02/2025
- 2.2Metadata last posted
19/04/2024
- 2.3Metadata last update
28/02/2025
- 2.1Metadata last certified
- 3Statistical presentation
- 3.1Data description
The survey on which the Business Confidence Indicators (BCI) are based is the first opinion survey carried out by the INE.
The objective of this survey is to know, at any given time, the view of those responsible for establishments on the situation and expectations of their business.
The BCI survey collects the opinions of establishment managers on their businesses' progress in each preceding quarter and on their expectations for each coming quarter.
The Business Confidence Indicators develop three indicators on a quarterly basis. On a national level, by activity sectors according to the National Classification of Economic Activities (CNAE-2009), by size of establishment, measured according to the number of employees and finally by Autonomous Communities.
The survey also collects information on other variables related to the establishments, from which information is provided on the evolution of the situation and the expectations of the level of employment in terms of hired personnel, and of the price level, both broken down by activity sectors and size of the establishment, and for those establishments with main industrial activity, information is also provided on the degree of utilization of the productive capacity according to different percentage ranges.
- 3.2Classification system
- Clasificaciones utilizadas
The classification system used for stratification by economic activity is CNAE-2009.
For stratification by size of establishment, the number of employees declared in INE's Central Company Directory (CCD) is used.
- Clasificaciones utilizadas
- 3.3Sector coverage
All establishments whose main activity is included in the following CNAE-2009 sections: B to N (both inclusive, except for division 70), R (only divisions 92 and 93) and S (only divisions 95 and 96).
- 3.4Statistical concepts and definitions
- Establishment or Local Unit
Establishment or Local Unit is the productive unit located in a topographically marked place (workshop, mine, factory, etc.), from which economic activities are carried out by one or more persons from the same company.
The establishment or Local Unit is the observation or information unit, that is, the unit chosen from the directory and to which the questionnaire data is to refer - Harmonised Business Confidence Index (HBCI)
It is constructed from the Situation and from the Expectations. The current base for this index is the first quarter of 2013, whose value in this first quarter is therefore equal to 100.
- Harmonised expectation indicator (called Expectations)
The Harmonised Expectation Indicator (known as the Expectations) includes the difference or balance between the percentages of favourable and unfavourable responses with regard to the coming quarter. It may fluctuate between -100 (all respondents are pessimistic, that is, they have ticked the Unfavourable box regarding the next quarter) and +100 (all respondents are optimistic, that is, they have ticked the Favourable box).
An intuitive interpretation thereof is simple and direct. If the Expectations are positive, the optimists exceed the pessimists with regard to the coming quarter. - Harmonised situation indicator (known as Situation)
This is the difference or balance between the percentages of favourable and unfavourable responses with regard to the closing quarter.
- Establishment or Local Unit
- 3.5Statistical unit
The statistical unit of this operation is the establishment.
- 3.6Statistical population
All establishments whose main activity is included in the following CNAE-2009 sections: B to N (both inclusive, except for division 70), R (only divisions 92 and 93) and S (only divisions 95 and 96).
- 3.7Reference area
From a geographical point of view, the statistic covers the whole of the national territory except Ceuta and Melilla and the sample is representative both at the national level and at the level of the Autonomous Communities.
The survey indicators are released both at the national level and by Autonomous Communities.
- 3.8Time coverage
The statistic is carried out quarterly, starting from the first quarter of 2012. However, it has been carried out in a harmonised way since the first quarter of 2013.
- 3.9Base period
The Indicator is calculated using the first quarter of 2013 as a base.
- 3.1Data description
- 4Unit of measure
- 4.1Unit of measure
The Harmonised expectations indicator includes the difference or balance between the percentage of favourable and unfavourable responses with regard to the coming quarter. It ay fluctuate between –100 (all respondents are pessimistic regarding the next quarter) and +100 (all respondents are optimistic in their expectations).
The Harmonised situation indicator is the difference or balance between the percentage of favourable and unfavourable responses with regard to the closing quarter.
The Harmonised Business Confidence Index has been built from an appropriately normalised geometric average between the Situation and the Expectations.
The same occurs with the variables of evolution and expectations of employment and prices, or with the utilization of productive capacity, for which percentages or balances are offered.
Thus, neither of the indicators have a regular unit of measure, it is the percentage differences or a geometric average of these.
- 4.1Unit of measure
- 5Reference period
- 5.1Reference period
The reference is quarterly and questions are asked on the quarter that is ending and the quarter that is beginning, which allows for the preparation of a confidence indicator in the first days of the reference quarter.
Data referred to the period: Trimestral A: 2025 TRI: I
- 5.1Reference period
- 6Institutional mandate
- 6.1Legal acts and other agreements
The compilation and dissemination of the data are governed by the Statistical Law No. 12/1989 "Public Statistical Function" of May 9, 1989, and Law No. 4/1990 of June 29 on “National Budget of State for the year 1990" amended by Law No. 13/1996 "Fiscal, administrative and social measures" of December 30, 1996, makes compulsory all statistics included in the National Statistics Plan. The National Statistical Plan 2009-2012 was approved by the Royal Decree 1663/2008. It contains the statistics that must be developed in the four year period by the State General Administration's services or any other entity dependent on it. All statistics included in the National Statistics Plan are statistics for state purposes and are obligatory. The National Statistics Plan 2021-2024, approved by Royal Decree 1110/2020, of 15 December, is the Plan currently implemented. This statistical operation has governmental purposes, and it is included in the National Statistics Plan 2021-2024. (Statistics of the State Administration).
The Harmonised Business Confidence Index is prepared with the support of the Central Statistics Offices of the Autonomous Communities (OCECAS) that have been considered appropriate for inclusion in this indicator through collaboration agreements.
- 6.2Data sharing
The exchanges of information needed to elaborate statistics between the INE and the rest of the State statistical offices (Ministerial Departments, independent bodies and administrative bodies depending on the State General Administration), or between these offices and the Autonomic statistical offices, are regulated in the LFEP (Law of the Public Statistic Function). This law also regulates the mechanisms of statistical coordination, and concludes cooperation agreements between the different offices when necessary.
Collaboration with Autonomous Communities consists of the inclusion of samples provided by those that want to be integrated into the Index.
- 6.1Legal acts and other agreements
- 7Confidentiality
- 7.1Confidentiality - policy
The Statistical Law No. 12/1989 specifies that the INE cannot publish, or make otherwise available, individual data or statistics that would enable the identification of data for any individual person or entity. Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 on European statistics stipulates the need to establish common principles and guidelines ensuring the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential data with due account for technical developments and the requirements of users in a democratic society
- 7.2Confidentiality - data treatment
INE provides information on the protection of confidentiality at all stages of the statistical process: INE questionnaires for the operations in the national statistical plan include a legal clause protecting data under statistical confidentiality. Notices prior to data collection announcing a statistical operation notify respondents that data are subject to statistical confidentiality at all stages. For data processing, INE employees have available the INE data protection handbook, which specifies the steps that should be taken at each stage of processing to ensure reporting units' individual data are protected. The microdata files provided to users are anonymised.
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- 7.1Confidentiality - policy
- 8Release policy
- 8.1Release calendar
The advance release calendar that shows the precise release dates for the coming year is disseminated in the last quarter of each year.
- 8.2Release calendar access
The calendar is disseminated on the INEs Internet website (Publications Calendar)
- 8.3User access
The data are released simultaneously according to the advance release calendar to all interested parties by issuing the press release. At the same time, the data are posted on the INE's Internet website (www.ine.es/en) almost immediately after the press release is issued. Also some predefined tailor-made requests are sent to registered users. Some users could receive partial information under embargo as it is publicly described in the European Statistics Code of Practice
- 8.1Release calendar
- 9Frequency of dissemination
- 9.1Frequency of dissemination
Quarterly
- 9.1Frequency of dissemination
- 10Accessibility and clarity
- 10.1News release
The results of the statistical operations are normally disseminated by using press releases that can be accessed via both the corresponding menu and the Press Releases Section in the web
- 10.2Publications
When the data is published, a press release is disseminated. This can be found on the INE website.
- 10.3On-line database
INEbase is the system the INE uses to store statistical information on the Internet. It contains all the information the INE produces in electronic formats. The primary organisation of the information follows the theme-based classification of the Inventory of Statistical Operations of the State General Administration . The basic unit of INEbase is the statistical operation, defined as the set of activities that lead to obtaining statistical results on a determined sector or subject based on the individually collected data. Also included in the scope of this definition are synthesis preparation.
The following link contains information from this survey.
In 2024 the number of accesses to the ICE website was AC1=83,803.
- 10.4Micro-data access
A lot of statistical operations disseminate public domain anonymized files, available free of charge for downloading in the INE website Microdata Section
No microdata file is provided for this statistical operation. Microdata files are only provided to other statistical bodies (Statistical Institutes of Autonomous Communities) that also have an obligation to maintain statistical secrecy.
- 10.5Other
In 2024 the number of accesses to the methodological report was AC2=1,265.
Users can request specific, tailored information use through the INE Information area, preserving data confidentiality in all cases.
https://www.ine.es/ss/Satellite?c=Page&p=1254735550786&pagename=ProductosYServicios%2FPYSLayout&cid=1254735550786&L=1 - 10.6Documentation on methodology
The metadata completeness indicator is AC3=100%.
A detailed description of the survey's methodology is available at:
- 10.7Quality documentation
Sections 10.6 to 17 of this document are considered to be the user-oriented quality report on this operation.
- 10.1News release
- 11Quality management
- 11.1Quality assurance
Quality assurance framework for the INE statistics is based on the ESSCoP, the European Statistics Code of Practice made by EUROSTAT. The ESSCoP is made up of 16 principles, gathered in three areas: Institutional Environment, Processes and Products. Each principle is associated with some indicators which make possible to measure it. In order to evaluate quality, EUROSTAT provides different tools: the indicators mentioned above, Self-assessment based on the DESAP model, peer review, user satisfaction surveys and other proceedings for evaluation.
The qualitative evaluation is the full confidence in the truthfulness of the response on the opinion of collaborators.
- 11.2Quality assessment
This statistical product's main strength is both the proximity between the collection and publication of the data, as well as its collection method via the internet.
It is a simple questionnaire and only deals with opinions, so there are no possible errors regarding data.
- 11.1Quality assurance
- 12Relevance
- 12.1User needs
National and Autonomous Community data may interest both companies and individuals. According to certain analysts, it is considered an advance indicator of activity.
- 12.2User satisfaction
The INE has carried out general user satisfaction surveys in 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2019 and it plans to continue doing so every three years. The purpose of these surveys is to find out what users think about the quality of the information of the INE statistics and the extent to which their needs of information are covered. In addition, additional surveys are carried out in order to acknowledge better other fields such as dissemination of the information, quality of some publications...
On the INE website, in its section Methods and Projects / Quality and Code of Practice / INE quality management / User surveys are available surveys conducted to date.(Click next link)
There is no data in this regard for this indicator.
- 12.3Completeness
100% of the results requested in the National Statistics Plan are provided.
Available obligatory statistical results rate R1=100%
- 12.1User needs
- 13Accuracy and reliability
- 13.1Overall accuracy
In this survey there is no system to measure accuracy. It is an opinion survey.
- 13.2Sampling error
The TANKAN method is used in which elevation factors are not utilised, meaning that this is not strictly a sample survey.
- 13.3Non-sampling error
In 2023 the non-response rate is A4=23.0% and the overcoverage rate is A2=0.51%.
- 13.1Overall accuracy
- 14Timeliness and punctuality
- 14.1Timeliness
The publication is released in the first calendar days of each quarter, and both the situation relative to the quarter that has just ended and the expectations for the quarter that is beginning are published therein, as well as the Harmonised Business Confidence Indices (normalised geometric average of both).
If we consider the expectations as data for the calculation of the TP2 indicator, it would be less than 2 months and 12 days for the first quarter of 2021.
If we consider the situation as data for the calculation of the TP2 indicator, it would be 19 days for the first quarter of 2021.
TP2 (expectations)= 2 months and 12 days
TP2 (situation)= 19 days
This temporal delay is due to the time necessary to collect the questionnaire.
- 14.2Punctuality
The INE data availability calendar is strictly fulfilled TP3=100%.
- 14.1Timeliness
- 15Coherence and Comparability
- 15.1Comparability - geographical
The indicators calculated for the national total and for the different Autonomous Communities are comparable to each other, as the same calculation methods are used at all levels.
The survey's methodology can be found at the following link.
- 15.2Comparability - over time
From the first quarter of 2013 until now. An additional element each quarter.
Number of comparable elements in a time series from its last gap (calculated for the 1st quarter of 2025): CC2=49
- 15.3Coherence - cross domain
This survey is comparable with the climate indicators in the Business Tendency Survey, prepared by the Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness.
- 15.4Coherence - internal
All results are coherent with one another.
- 15.1Comparability - geographical
- 16Cost and burden
- 16.1Cost and burden
The 2025 Annual Programme estimate of the necessary budgetary appropriation to finance this survey is 228.95 thounsand euros.
In terms of the burden for the respondent, it is a simple survey exclusively collecting opinions, meaning that the burden is as small as possible thanks to the questionnaire's design.
- 16.1Cost and burden
- 17Data revision
- 17.1Data revision - policy
The INE of Spain has a policy which regulates the basic aspects of statistical data revision, seeking to ensure process transparency and product quality. This policy is laid out in the document approved by the INE board of directors on 13 March of 2015, which is available on the INE website, in the section "Methods and projects/Quality and Code of Practice/INE’s Quality management/INE’s Revision policy" (link).
This general policy sets the criteria that the different type of revisions should follow: routine revision- it is the case of statistics whose production process includes regular revisions-; more extensive revision- when methodological or basic reference source changes take place-; and exceptional revision- for instance, when an error appears in a published statistic-.
The publication of data is definitive.
- 17.2Data revision - practice
Not carried out. They are definitive data.
- 17.1Data revision - policy
- 18Statistical processing
- 18.1Source data
The data are provided by establishment managers, as they are the ones that have an overall grasp on their business' progress and on the development of the variables about which information is requested.
The sample of establishments whose main activity is included in the following CNAE-2009 sections: B to N (both inclusive, except for division 70), R (only divisions 92 and 93) and S (only divisions 95 and 96) are extracted from INE's Central Company Directory.
- 18.2Frequency of data collection
Quarterly
- 18.3Data collection
In 2024, 87.1% of the data collection for this survey was done via the web questionnaire.
- 18.4Data validation
Not carried out. This is not necessary as it is an opinion survey.
- 18.5Data compilation
The complementary samples of the various Autonomous Communities that are included by agreement in the harmonised indicator are adjusted.
- 18.6Adjustment
It is not necessary to carry out any seasonal adjustment for this survey as the questionnaire should already be completed bearing in mind the current time of year.
- 18.1Source data
- 19Comment
- 19.1Comment
- 19.1Comment